USD/JPY Forecast for 2024 and Beyond

Table of Contents

About USD/JPY Currency Rate Forecast

Short-term USD/JPY price forecast for 2024

USD/JPY technical analysis

USD/JPY Price History

USD/JPY Forecast for 2025

USD/JPY Forecast for 2026

USD/JPY Forecast for 2027

USD/JPY Forecast for 2028

What Affects the Dollar to Yen Rate?

How to Predict the Dollar to Yen Exchange Rate

Conclusion

FAQs

With the Japanese national currency being one of the top Forex traders’ choices, the yen exchange rate forecast is always a big question. This article provides insights into experts’ opinions about the future of the Japanese yen, as well as technical analysis of the pair rate, and predictions from 2024 to 2028. Aside from seeing the Japanese yen forecast, you will also find out what factors define its price, and how to make data-driven projections.

About USD/JPY Currency Rate Forecast

The value of the yen appears to be finally stabilizing after a steep slide spanning three years. According to a Bloomberg study of market players, stronger Japanese currency values are anticipated in 2024. The average USD/JPY forecast is 135.00 by the end of 2024.

Here are USD/JPY currency rate predictions by different banks:

• Goldman Sachs – 130.00
• Barclays – 135.00
• UBS – 132.00
• MUFG – 125.00

HSBC currency experts predict that during the next five years, increasing stock markets and US rates will cause the US dollar to revert to its fair value, which is now overpriced. By mid-2024, HSBC researchers predict that the pair's exchange rate will hit 120.00.

Short-term USD/JPY price forecast for 2024

Basically, the Japanese yen forecast for 2024 is a breakout of the 152.00 resistance level in a few months to a year if the Bank of Japan sticks to its current monetary policy, maintaining a negative interest rate, and the Fed takes its time moving toward a more accommodative monetary course. This will trigger a rate rise and new record highs.

USD/JPY technical analysis

Technically speaking, any further advance is probably going to run against strong resistance in the range of 150.65–150.70. This is logical after a multi-month high that was reached in February near the 150.90 zone. If this level is cleared forcefully, bullish traders will regard it as a new catalyst. The USD/JPY pair may then rise to the 151.45 barrier en route to the 152.00 level, or a long-term peak retested in November 2023, given that oscillators on the daily chart remain restrained in the positive region.

Conversely, the psychological threshold of 150.00 appears to be guarding against further declines, below which current prices may return to the low, which is located in the 149.20 range.

As for a longer-term prediction, we can see that the dollar keeps gaining strength, touching the support line three times since 2020. If trend continues, the dollar/yen pair may reach the rate of 200 or more by 2028.

USD/JPY Price History

During 2023, the USD/JPY rate kept within the range of 130 to 152, with the US dollar showing signs of moderate growth. A combination of global events, central bank policies, and economic indicators led to a notable 19% gain in the rate in 2023. Throughout the year, the USD/JPY pair reached a high of 151.93 in November due to the difference between the US's rising interest rates and Japan's stable policies.

By December 2023, the USD/JPY rate stabilized around 145 as the Fed loosened its stance and Japan stuck to its policies.

USD/JPY Forecast for 2025

During 2025, the USD/JPY rate is expected to keep growing, taking into account the US government’s policy on fighting inflation rates, and Japan’s conservative take on its economy. Significant changes (over 1%) in rates are not expected.

USD to JPY Forecast for 2025

USD/JPY Forecast for 2026

Unless the US economy experiences a shock, the USD/JPY forecast for 2026 is a steady rise with some higher fluctuations. For example, It may grow by 1.1% in February and experience about 0.7% spikes in the last quarter of 2026.

USD to JPY Forecast for 2026

USD/JPY Forecast for 2027

Over 2027, the USD/JPY pair can overcome a long-awaited 200 level. February and September can be marked with the highest spikes of 1% and 0.73% correspondingly.

USD to JPY Forecast for 2027

USD/JPY Forecast for 2028

2028 also promises to be a victorious year for the US dollar, which can become worth 220 yen by December. But keep in mind that this is a long-term forecast, which is very likely to be corrected over the following five years. There are too many factors influencing the yen price.

USD to JPY Forecast for 2028

What Affects the Dollar to Yen Rate?

The USD/JPY exchange rate is influenced by several factors, including:

• The monetary policies of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan
• Economic indicators (for example, GDP growth and employment rates)
• Geopolitical tensions
• Trade balances
• Investors’ sentiment towards risk

Additionally, fluctuations in global commodity prices (particularly oil), and the overall health of the global economy also play a significant role in shaping the exchange rate between the US dollar and the Japanese yen.

How to Predict the Dollar to Yen Exchange Rate

Predicting the dollar/yen exchange rate involves analyzing economic indicators, central bank policies, geopolitical events, and market sentiment. Utilizing techniques like technical analysis, which examines historical price patterns, and fundamental analysis, which assesses economic factors, can aid in forecasting.

Factors such as interest rate differentials, inflation rates, trade balances, and political stability also impact predictions. Moreover, monitoring news and developments that could affect the US and Japanese economies helps refine forecasts. However, exchange rate prediction is inherently uncertain due to the complexity of global markets and unforeseen events.

Conclusion

As a popular trading Forex pair, USD/JPY is a nice option for both short and long-term trading. However, before placing your orders, do your research on both currencies and try to analyze their further movements. While the majority of technical AI-generated forecasts imply strengthening of the US dollar, you should keep your finger on the pulse of the market, national economies and geopolitical events.

FAQs

Will the US dollar get stronger against the Japanese yen in 2024?

Yes, the majority of banks and experts suggest that the US dollar will keep gaining strength against the yen during 2024 and beyond.

What is the forecast for USD to JPY in 2025?

During 2025, the US dollar / Japanese yen rate is predicted to be in the range from 162 to 177, showing signs of steady growth.

Will the USD to JPY exchange rate fall / drop?

According to the majority of price forecasts, the USD to JPY rate will keep growing.

What will the USD/JPY FX rate be worth in five years (2028)?

Given the current rate movements and market trends, the USD/JPY rate may overcome the 200 threshold by the beginning of 2028. However, this is a long-term prediction that can be influenced by a large number of factors.

Will the USD/JPY FX rate crash?

So far, there are no conditions for the Japanese yen to strengthen against the US dollar, so the rate is not expected to crash.

Will the USD/JPY exchange rate hit 500 in a year?

Given the current state of the American and Japanese economies, this is not possible – that would mark more than a 250% growth.

Will the USD/JPY exchange rate hit 1000 in a year?

Given the current state of the American and Japanese economies, this is not possible – that would mark more than a 760% growth.