Coal price forecast: How will the price change in 2026 and beyond?

One of the world's major commodities, coal, is a must-have resource in pretty much every country because it is widely used in a number of important industries. Its price depends on a number of factors, including geopolitics, energy consumption, and technical progress, so making coal price forecasts is no easy task.

This article provides insights into coal price performance and related news over recent years, explains what it depends on, how coal consumption trends are changing across the globe, and what to expect from the coal price in 2026 and beyond.

Table of contents

• Key Takeaways
• Coal Price Forecast Summary
• Coal Technical Analysis
• Factors that shape coal prices
• Where is coal used?
• Historical coal price performance
• Coal Price Predictions 2026
• Coal Price Predictions 2027
• Coal Price Predictions 2028
• Coal Price Predictions 2029
• Coal Price Forecasts 2030
• FAQ
• Sources

Key Takeaways

• Current outlook: Newcastle thermal coal trades near $144.00/ton, a modest pullback from the $146-148/ton highs reached in early September, though the metal remains up nearly 11% over the past month and close to 40% year-on-year. The broader driver remains the same: renewed direct US-Iran military conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruption have tightened LNG supplies, pushing power generators across Asia and Europe to switch from gas to coal.
• Key price drivers: Coal prices are shaped by the global energy transition, environmental regulations, demand from major consumers like China and India, competition with natural gas, steel industry activity, seasonal consumption patterns, and geopolitical factors.
• Market trajectory: Geopolitical and weather-driven supply risk, not a steady demand-led recovery, has been the dominant driver all year. Coking coal (FOB Australia) reached about $240/ton in mid-May 2026 on the Middle East tensions, cooled into late June as an interim US-Iran agreement briefly eased tensions, and thermal coal firmed again in July-August on Indonesian export disruption. Direct US-Iran military fighting resumed in early September 2026, driving Newcastle thermal coal to a twelve-week high of $146-148/ton, and the metal has since consolidated modestly around $144/ton as of mid-September, still holding the bulk of the September escalation-driven gain rather than reversing it.
• Historical performance: In 2024, thermal coal averaged around $140/ton at Newcastle, while coking coal reached $211/ton, both declining from earlier peaks. Throughout 2025, prices continued their adjustment phase with notable fluctuations.
• New developments: the IEA has warned that if LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain disrupted, global coal demand could reach another record next year. Separately, China reported that solar power became its single largest source of electricity generation capacity, surpassing coal-fired power for the first time — a structural milestone that has not stopped coal demand from rising in the near term, as coal remains the world's largest single source of power generation. El Niño conditions are also boosting cooling-driven electricity demand while reducing hydropower output in India and Vietnam, adding a further demand tailwind.

Coal Price Forecast Summary

The coal price forecast indicates a multi-phase trajectory, with thermal coal prices expected to experience volatility in 2026 before entering a period of gradual recovery and stabilization through 2030. Coking coal prices are anticipated to remain volatile in the near term, followed by strengthening and eventual stabilization in the later years.

India's demand growth and additional electricity demand could provide some support for the market. However, the overall trajectory suggests initial pressure on prices, particularly in the spot market, before transitioning to a more stable equilibrium.

Coal consumption patterns will continue to evolve in key markets like China, the world's largest coal consumer, and parts of the European Union, despite displacing coal with alternatives like natural gas and hydropower.

While coal will not disappear overnight, analysts from the Prospects Group at the World Bank suggest that the market will experience a period of adjustment and stabilization, particularly as investments shift away from fossil fuels. The coal price projection for the next five years suggests a transition from volatility to equilibrium, with structural changes initially weighing on prices before stabilization sets in.

Coal Technical Analysis

Through 2025, coal prices demonstrated continued volatility, with thermal coal fluctuating between $97.50/ton in April and $115.50/ton in January. Coking coal ranged from $174.25/ton in March to $197.50/ton at the year's start. Since then, 2026 has brought a further, larger swing: Newcastle thermal coal surged toward multi-year highs in Q2 2026 amid the Iran-US conflict and Indonesian export controls, eased to a four-month low by late June as tensions de-escalated, firmed again to around $130-136/ton by late July on renewed Indonesian supply concerns, surged further to a twelve-week high of $146-148/ton in early September as direct US-Iran fighting resumed, and has since eased modestly to around $144/ton.

Technical Signals

Coal's technical picture remains firmly bullish: Monthly, Weekly, and 5-Hour timeframes read Strong Buy on Investing.com, with Daily and Hourly at Neutral — a slight cooling in the shortest timeframes since the escalation-driven surge, though the broader trend remains intact.

Newcastle Coal Futures trade at $144.00 per tonne, unchanged on the most recent session, according to Investing.com pricing data.

• 1 Day: 0.00%
• 1 Week: -1.87%
• 1 Month: +10.34%
• 6 Months: +6.39%
• 1 Year: +39.33%
• 5 Years: +111.30%

The Strong Buy signal on the Monthly and Weekly timeframes, alongside Daily cooling to Neutral, reflects a market that has consolidated after its escalation-driven breakout rather than reversing it. The 1-month gain of +10.34% and 1-year gain of +39.33% still capture the bulk of this year's uptrend, even after the modest pullback from the early-September highs.

Key Influencing Factors

Several critical factors are currently shaping coal price movements in the market. The global energy transition continues to exert downward pressure on thermal coal demand structurally — China recently reported that solar surpassed coal-fired power as its single largest electricity generation source for the first time — even as near-term demand remains resilient. China's domestic production expansion has significantly impacted import dynamics, while India's growing electricity needs, now amplified by El Niño-driven cooling demand and reduced hydropower output, provide additional support to the market. Weather-driven supply disruption in Indonesia remains a price driver alongside the geopolitical factors discussed below, which have become the dominant near-term influence.

Supply-side dynamics remain complex, with production levels staying robust at approximately 8.6 billion metric tons annually.

Direct military conflict between the US and Iran resumed in early September 2026, and Strait of Hormuz disruption has returned in force, once again pushing power generators across Asia and Europe to substitute coal for gas-fired generation. That pressure has moderated only slightly through mid-September, consistent with the modest pullback in price rather than a genuine reversal.

Industrial demand patterns, particularly from the steel sector, drive coking coal price fluctuations, while seasonal variations in heating and cooling requirements create predictable demand cycles for thermal coal.

Factors that shape coal prices

• Global economic growth drives industrialization and increased energy consumption. During upswings, industries require more energy, often sourced from coal. Conversely, economic downturns can lead to reduced industrial activity and a decline in energy demand.
• Stringent environmental policies and regulations, aimed at reducing carbon emissions, may favor cleaner energy sources over coal.
• Advances in renewable energy, storage and efficiency can make alternative sources more cost-competitive.
• Political factors, including changes in government policies, international relations, and geopolitical tensions, can affect the stability of coal markets. Coal also competes with natural gas for electricity generation.
• Infrastructure projects, such as construction and urbanization, drive demand for electricity, which is often met by coal.
• Seasonal variations impact energy consumption patterns.
• The cost of extracting coal and transporting it to consumers influences its overall pricing.
• International trade relationships and policies affect the flow of coal across borders.
• The implementation of carbon pricing mechanisms makes coal more expensive compared to low-carbon alternatives.
• Availability of funding and investment for coal projects affects coal production capacity.

Where is coal used?

Among the various uses for coal, producing electricity is the most significant. The United States Geological Survey classifies coal into four categories based on how well it heats:

• Hard coal, or anthracite, is ranked highest.
• Bituminous coal is utilized to make steel due to its high heating value.
• Sub-bituminous coal, with a low to moderate heating value, comes in third.
• Lignite coal (grade four) has a high moisture content and low heating value.

Roughly 79% of the global coal trade accounts for thermal coal, often known as power station coal. It is burned to produce steam, which drives turbines connected to generators. This process, known as combustion, generates a significant portion of the world's electrical power — nearly 11,000 TWh annually, making coal the single largest source of global power generation.

The remaining coking coal is used in metallurgy primarily as a reducing agent in the process of extracting metals from their ores.

Historical coal price performance

In 2024, coal markets experienced notable fluctuations. Thermal coal prices, particularly at Newcastle, averaged approximately $140 per metric ton (t) in December 2024, reflecting a decline from earlier in the year.

Conversely, coking coal prices exhibited volatility, with Australian FOB prices averaging around $211/t in the 2024/2025 financial year.

China, the world's largest coal consumer, increased domestic production, impacting import levels and global coal consumption patterns.

Over 2025, coal markets did maintain a broadly downward-to-flat trajectory before firming into year-end. Thermal coal averaged around $106/ton over the first three quarters, before climbing back to $107.50/ton by December 2025.

Coking coal prices have exhibited notable volatility, with Australian FOB prices fluctuating between $174/t and $197/t.

Coking coal (FOB Australia) rose to about $240/ton by mid-May 2026 amid tight supply, while Newcastle thermal coal spiked toward multi-year highs in Q2 2026 as the Iran-US conflict disrupted the Strait of Hormuz and lifted demand for coal as an LNG substitute. An interim US-Iran agreement in June 2026 eased tensions, and thermal coal eased to a four-month low by late June, before firming again to around $130-136/ton by late July 2026 on Indonesian coal-barging disruption. Direct US-Iran fighting resumed in early September 2026, driving Newcastle thermal coal to a twelve-week high of $146-148/ton, and the metal has since eased modestly to around $144/ton by mid-September, retaining most of the escalation-driven gain.

Coal Price Predictions 2026

This model-based forecast called for thermal coal to progress from $108.65/ton in January to approximately $117.45/ton by December 2026. Newcastle thermal coal spiked well above $117/ton during the Q2 2026 Middle East-driven surge, and after a brief pullback to a four-month low in late June and a partial recovery on Indonesian supply disruption, surged further to $146-148/ton in early September as direct US-Iran fighting resumed, before easing modestly to $144/ton by mid-September — still roughly 23% above the December target with several months still remaining in the year, driven overwhelmingly by geopolitics rather than the gradual demand-led recovery this forecast assumed.

Coking coal is projected to demonstrate stronger price appreciation, climbing from $201.50/ton to $215.75/ton as steel production activities normalize and supply chain efficiencies improve. The following projections outline the anticipated monthly price trajectory:

Coal Price Predictions 2027

For 2027, coal price forecasts indicate a transition toward greater market stability with minimal month-to-month fluctuations.

Coal Price Predictions 2028

The 2028 outlook anticipates a slight correction in thermal coal prices, with values expected to peak in January before gradually declining toward year-end.

Coal Price Predictions 2029

Price projections for 2029 suggest continued stability with minimal variation, reflecting a mature market nearing its long-term equilibrium point.

One long-range algorithmic model (WalletInvestor's NCFY series) separately cites a much higher trajectory. This figure should be treated with significant caution: the underlying live data feed for this model currently shows a static, non-moving quote with identical support and resistance levels, implying zero real volatility — a strong indication of a stale or frozen data feed rather than genuine market pricing.

Coal Price Forecasts 2030

By 2030, thermal coal price forecasts indicate a stabilized market with prices consistently ranging within a narrow band throughout the year.

Data last updated: September 21, 2026.

FAQ

• How will coal prices shape up the beginning of 2026?
  At the start of 2026, coal prices did move higher: by mid-2026, Middle East tensions had pushed Newcastle thermal coal to multi-year highs and coking coal to around $240/ton.
• What will the price of coal be in 2026?
  By the end of 2025, coal prices had shown modest recovery from earlier lows, with thermal coal at approximately $107.50/ton and coking coal near $197.75/ton. Through 2026, prices moved well above those levels on Middle East-driven supply concerns, eased to a four-month low by late June, firmed again on Indonesian coal-barging disruption, surged to a twelve-week high of $146-148/ton in early September as renewed direct US-Iran fighting reopened Strait of Hormuz disruption risk in full, and have since eased modestly to around $144/ton.
• How is coal expected to develop in the future?
  Coal markets are expected to follow a multi-phase trajectory over the coming years. After experiencing volatility in 2025 and a sharp geopolitically-driven surge in 2026, prices are projected by model-based forecasts to gradually moderate toward the $117-$121 range for thermal coal and $215-$222/ton for coking coal, before reaching long-term equilibrium around $118-$119/ton for thermal coal by 2028-2030 — though the actual path in 2026 has already run well above these model projections due to the Iran-Hormuz conflict.
• What is the coal supply in 2026?
  As of early 2026, global coal supply remains robust, with production levels closely aligning with demand. In 2025, coal production stood at approximately 8.6 billion metric tons.
• What is the prediction for the coal market?
  From 2026 to 2030, the coal market is expected to transition from volatility to stabilization, per model-based forecasts. After initial pressure in 2025, thermal coal prices were forecast to recover to approximately $117-$121/ton in 2026-2027 before stabilizing around $118-$119/ton through 2030 — a path that actual 2026 prices have already exceeded by roughly 23%, at $144/ton, due to the renewed Iran-Hormuz conflict. Coking coal is projected to strengthen to $215-$222/ton in 2026-2027, with continued stability thereafter. Long-range figures attributed to WalletInvestor's NCFY model should be treated with caution — see the note under the 2029 forecast section.
• Why did coal prices surge again in September 2026?
  Direct military fighting between the US and Iran resumed in early September 2026, reviving disruption risk to the Strait of Hormuz and tightening global LNG supplies. This pushed power generators in China, South Korea, Japan, and Europe to switch from natural gas back to coal, driving Newcastle thermal coal up to a twelve-week high of $146-148/ton. Prices have since eased modestly to around $144/ton by mid-September, holding most of the escalation-driven gain. El Niño-driven cooling demand and reduced hydropower output in India and Vietnam added a further tailwind. The IEA has warned that if Hormuz LNG flows remain disrupted, global coal demand could reach another record next year.

Sources

• Trading Economics — Coal Price & Historical Data — https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/coal
• Investing.com — Newcastle Coal Futures Technical Analysis — https://www.investing.com/commodities/newcastle-coal-futures-technical
• Barchart — ICE Newcastle Coal Prices & Futures — https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/LQ*0/futures-prices
• globalCOAL — NEWC Index (Newcastle benchmark) — https://www.globalcoal.com/coalprices/newcindex.cfm
• World Bank — Commodity Markets Outlook — https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets
• IEA — Coal Market Update — https://www.iea.org/
• MacroMicro — ICE Newcastle Coal Futures Price series — https://en.macromicro.me/series/3617/ice-newcastle-coal-futures