News

The Progressive Corporation PGR is slated to report first-quarter 2024 earnings on Apr 12 before the opening bell. The company’s earnings beat estimates in the last reported quarter.

Factors to Note

A compelling product portfolio, leadership position, strength in the Vehicle and Property businesses, healthy policies in force and solid retention are likely to have aided net premiums earned. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for net premiums earned is pegged at $15.6 billion, suggesting growth of 15.5% from the year-ago reported number. We estimate net premiums earned of $14.3 billion for the to-be-reported quarter, up 5.8% year over year.

Policies in force are likely to have been driven by PGR’s focus on segmentation and prudent risk selection. We estimate policies in force to total 31.1 million in the to-be-reported quarter.

The personal auto business is likely to have benefited from the company’s focus on marketing competitive product offerings and a strong market presence.

A higher invested asset base and a higher interest rate are likely to have aided net investment income. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the metric is pegged at $597 million. We estimate net investment income of $594.2 million for the to-be-reported quarter, up 41.6% year over year.

The top line is likely to have benefited from higher premiums earned, increased net investment income and a rise in service revenues and fees and other revenues. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter revenues stands at $16.5 billion, suggesting year-over-year growth of approximately 16%. We estimate quarterly revenues to be $15.2 billion.

Higher loss and loss-adjustment expenses, policy acquisition costs and other underwriting expenses are likely to have raised expenses. We estimate total operating expenses to increase 0.1% to $13.2 billion. The consensus mark for loss and loss-adjustment expense ratio is pegged at 72.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at $2.96, indicating a 355% surge from the year-ago quarter reported figure.

What the Zacks Model Says

Per our proven model, the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of a beat.

Earnings ESP: Progressive has an Earnings ESP of +6.78%. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate of $3.16 is pegged higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.96. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

The Progressive Corporation Price and EPS Surprise

Zacks Rank: PGR currently carries a Zacks Rank of 1. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Other Stocks to Consider

Here are three P&C insurance stocks you may want to consider, as our model shows that these also have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat:

The Travelers Companies TRV has an Earnings ESP of +5.53% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter 2024 earnings is pegged at $4.74, indicating a year-over-year increase of 15.3%

TRV’s earnings beat estimates in two of the last four reported quarters while missing in the other two.

Palomar Holdings PLMR has an Earnings ESP of +3.41% and a Zacks Rank #1 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter 2024 earnings is pegged at 93 cents, indicating a year-over-year decrease of 16.3%.

PLMR earnings beat estimates in each of the last four reported quarters.

Allstate Corporation ALL has an Earnings ESP of +15.02% and currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter 2024 earnings is pegged at $3.78, implying an increase of 390.8% from the year-ago reported figure.

ALL’s earnings beat estimates in three of the last four reported quarters while missing in one.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.