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18 April
AUM Growth Likely to Support Ameriprise (AMP) in Q1 Earnings

Ameriprise Financial, Inc. AMP is scheduled to report first-quarter 2024 results on Apr 22, after market close. Its revenues and earnings in the to-be-reported quarter are anticipated to have increased on a year-over-year basis.

In the last reported quarter, the company’s earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Results were aided by growth in revenues, along with higher assets under management (AUM) and assets under administration (AUA) balances. However, an increase in expenses was a negative.

Ameriprise has an impressive earnings surprise history. Its earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the trailing four quarters, the average being 1.5%.

Ameriprise Financial, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company’s first-quarter earnings is pegged at $8.10 per share, which indicates a rise of 11.7% from the prior-year quarter’s reported number. The consensus estimate has been revised marginally lower over the past seven days.

The consensus estimate for total sales is pegged at $4.16 billion, which indicates a 12.6% rise from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.

Estimates & Key Factors to Note for Q1

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AMP’s first-quarter management and financial advice fees (constituting more than 60% of total net revenues) is pegged at $2.40 billion, which suggests a 12.4% rise from the prior-year quarter’s reported number. Our estimate for the same is $2.32 billion.

The consensus estimate for distribution fees of $567 million indicates a year-over-year rise of 9.7%. Our estimate for the same is $527.2 million. The consensus estimate for premiums, policy and contract charges is pegged at $395 million, indicating a year-over-year rise of 9.1%. Our estimate for the same is pinned at $363.6 million.

The consensus estimate for net investment income of $863 million suggests a 23.6% year-over-year increase. Our estimate for the same is pinned at $882.8 million. The consensus mark for other revenues of $107 million indicates an 18.3% decline from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure. Our estimate for the same is pegged at $30.6 million.

Based on the expectations of improved advisor productivity, the Advice & Wealth Management segment is expected to have recorded growth in assets in the first quarter.

Moreover, supported by overall asset inflows, the total AUM balance is likely to have increased. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for total AUM and AUA is pegged at $1.39 trillion, indicating an increase of 12.4% from the year-ago quarter’s reported number. Our estimate for the metric is $1.33 trillion.

While Ameriprise’s initiatives to focus on cost management have led to controlled general and administration expenses in the past, overall costs are anticipated to have been elevated in the to-be-reported quarter due to costs related to technology upgrades. Our estimate for total expenses is pegged at $3.20 billion.

Earnings Whispers

According to our quantitative model, the chances of Ameriprise beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings this time are high. This is because it has the right combination of the two key ingredients — a positive Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better — which is required to be confident of an earnings beat.

You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: Ameriprise has an Earnings ESP of +0.58%.

Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3.

Other Stocks to Consider

A couple of other finance stocks that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these, too, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this time, are Fifth Third Bancorp FITB and Truist Financial TFC.

The Earnings ESP for FITB is +0.89%. The stock carries a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. FITB is slated to report first-quarter 2024 results on Apr 19.

TFC is scheduled to release first-quarter 2024 earnings on Apr 22. The company carries a Zacks Rank of 3 at present and has an Earnings ESP of +0.83%. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.