News: Analyzing The Q4 Earnings Season Scorecard

19 February

Analyzing The Q4 Earnings Season Scorecard

Note: The following is an excerpt from this week’s Earnings Trends report. You can access the full report that contains detailed historical actual and estimates for the current and following periods, please click here>>>

Here are the key points:

Total earnings for the 394 S&P 500 members that have reported Q4 results are up +12.7% from the same period last year on +8.8% higher revenues, with 75.9% beating EPS estimates and 72.3% beating revenue estimates.

The Q4 earnings growth pace and EPS beats percentage for this group of 394 index members is tracking below what we had seen from this same group of companies in the preceding period, with the EPS beats percentage also tracking below the 20-quarter average for this group of companies.

The revenue growth pace for this group of 394 index members represents a clear acceleration relative to other recent periods. The Q4 revenue beats percentage is tracking below the preceding period but is otherwise modestly above the 20-quarter average for this group of companies.

For the Tech sector, we now have 2025 Q4 results from 72.8% of the sector’s market capitalization in the S&P 500 index. Total earnings for these Tech companies are up +17.4% from the same period last year on +15.6% higher revenues, with 87.3% beating EPS estimates and 87.3% beating revenue estimates. This is a notably better performance from these Tech companies relative to other recent periods.

Combining the actual results that have come out with estimates for the still-to-come companies, total Q4 earnings are currently expected to be up +13.1% from the same period last year on +9.1% higher revenues. This will be the 10^th consecutive quarter of positive earnings growth for the index.

Standout Sectors This Earnings Season

In terms of the market’s positive reaction to Q4 results, three sectors clearly stand out. These sectors are Industrial Products, Energy, and Utilities, with median stock price reactions of +2.72%, +2.61%, and +2.86%, respectively, in response to Q4 results. These stock price gains in response to Q4 results compare with market moves of +1.18% for Industrial products sector companies following 2025 Q3 results, while the comparable moves for the Energy and Utilities sectors were -0.59% and -0.11%, respectively.

The price change referenced here is from the day before the earnings release to the day after, with the median price calculated for each sector.

Looking at the Industrial Products sector Q4 earnings season scorecard, we now have results from 87.2% of the sector’s market capitalization in the S&P 500 index. Total earnings for these companies are up +5.6% from the same period last year on +12.1% higher revenues, with 72.7% beating EPS estimates and 54.5% beating revenue estimates.

The comparison charts below put the Industrial Products sector’s Q4 earnings and revenue growth rates in a historical context.