USD/CAD trades at 1.41854 as of September 29, 2026 (TradingView, +0.07%), equivalent to approximately 0.7050 in CAD/USD terms. The Canadian dollar has weakened since the article's August 11 data point (USD/CAD 1.3933, CAD/USD 0.718), driven primarily by the Federal Reserve's September 16, 2026 rate hike to 3.75-4.00% — the first hike since July 2023 — and the Bank of Canada's September 2 hold at 2.25% (7th consecutive hold). The resulting rate differential of 150-175bp is the primary structural driver. The monthly technical signal (Barchart) reads Strong Buy for USD/CAD.
Alongside American and Australian dollars, the Canadian dollar is one of the top choices for trading on forex or investing. USD/CAD is among major traders' instruments, so it's no wonder the pair is prone to volatility. This article provides CAD/USD forecasts for short, mid, and long terms and identifies which factors shape the cost of CAD.
In Q1 2026, USD/CAD hovered around 1.368 (CAD/USD 0.7313). By August 11, 2026, the rate had moved to approximately 1.3933 USD/CAD (CAD/USD 0.718) as the Bank of Canada cut rates to 2.25%. As of September 29, 2026, USD/CAD has risen further to 1.41854 (CAD/USD 0.7050). Two key events drove this move: the Bank of Canada held 2.25% on September 2 (7th consecutive hold, confirming the end of the cut cycle) and the Federal Reserve raised rates to 3.75-4.00% on September 16 (12-0 vote, first since July 2023). The widening rate differential (150-175bp) is the primary driver of CAD weakness.
As of September 29, 2026, USD/CAD trades at 1.41854, having risen +1.8% from 1.3933 on August 11 in less than 7 weeks. The CoinCodex model's September 2026 forecast of 0.7509 CAD/USD (average) has not been met — actual September 29 CAD/USD is approximately 0.7050, or $0.046 below the model's projection. The downtrend in CAD/USD that has characterised most of 2026 continues.
| Date | Rate (CAD/USD) | Rate (USD/CAD) | Source / Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 avg | 0.7313 | 1.368 | Reference from article |
| July 27, 2026 | 0.708 | 1.412 | Trading Economics |
| July 30, 2026 | 0.712 | 1.4045 | CAD strengthened after Fed held |
| August 11, 2026 | 0.718 | 1.3933 | Investing.com (article date) |
| September 2, 2026 | 0.714–0.717 | 1.394–1.401 | BoC held 2.25% — 7th consecutive hold |
| September 16, 2026 | 0.709–0.712 | 1.405–1.410 | Fed raised to 3.75-4.00% (12-0); USD strengthened |
| September 29, 2026 | 0.7050 | 1.41854 | TradingView — current update |
September 2, 2026 (BoC meeting): Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% — the 7th consecutive meeting without a change. The cut cycle has ended. The rate differential between the Fed (now 3.75-4.00% after September 16) and the BoC (2.25%) has widened to 150-175 basis points — a significant structural headwind for CAD.
September 16, 2026 (Fed FOMC): The Federal Reserve raised rates to 3.75-4.00% (12-0 vote, first hike since July 2023). USD/CAD rose from 1.393 to 1.419 in the weeks following, reflecting the dollar's strengthening on the rate differential expansion. Next FOMC: November 5, 2026.
Oil prices remain a critical driver of CAD. In 2026, Brent has traded in a range supporting Canadian exports, but the dollar's strength from the Fed hike has offset much of the commodity support.
| Period | CAD to USD Forecast (model) | Actual / Updated context |
|---|---|---|
| September 2026 (CoinCodex) | 0.7419–0.7626 (avg 0.7509) | Actual: 0.7050 — below model range |
| December 2026 (CoinCodex avg) | 0.7133–0.7478 | USD/CAD at 1.418 implies CAD/USD 0.705 — below range |
| Q2 2027 (MTFX, 5-bank avg) | USD/CAD easing to 1.34 | Requires CAD recovery of 5% from current levels |
USD/CAD: 1.41854 (September 29, 2026) — TradingView. Monthly technical signal (Barchart): Strong Buy (Summary: 0 Sell / 10 Neutral / 16 Buy; MA: Strong Buy 0S/1N/14B; Oscillators: Buy 0S/9N/2B). Note: Strong Buy refers to USD/CAD — i.e., further dollar strength vs. CAD.
Performance (TradingView, September 29, 2026):
Actual September 29, 2026 USD/CAD (1.41854) is significantly above the article's August 11 data point (1.3933). The MTFX five-bank average projection of USD/CAD easing from 1.39 (Q3 2026) to 1.34 (Q2 2027) appears optimistic given the current rate differential.
September 2026 accuracy check: The model's September 2026 forecast (avg $0.7509, range 0.7419–0.7626) has not been met. Actual CAD/USD is approximately 0.7050—belowthemodel'sminimumrange(0.7419) by $0.037. The December 2026 model (top $0.7478 = USD/CAD 1.337) has already been exceeded by the actual rate (1.41854).
| Month | Min. Price | Avg. Price | Max. Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| September 2026 | $0.741869 | $0.750898 | $0.762632 |
| October 2026 | $0.750718 | $0.762834 | $0.774929 |
| November 2026 | $0.743691 | $0.749825 | $0.762952 |
| December 2026 | $0.713292 | $0.726171 | $0.747808 |
As of September 29, 2026, USD/CAD trades at 1.41854 (CAD/USD 0.7050). The Canadian dollar has weakened from 0.718 (August 11) driven by: the Bank of Canada's September 2 hold at 2.25% (7th consecutive hold, confirming the end of the cut cycle) and the Federal Reserve's September 16 rate hike to 3.75-4.00% (first since July 2023). The rate differential of 150-175bp is the primary structural driver. CoinCodex September model (avg 0.7509) has not been met — actual 0.7050 is $0.046 below.
Data updated: September 29, 2026.
All forecasts are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial advice.
© 2026 J2T Services Ltd
J2T Services Ltd is authorised and regulated by the Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission in accordance with license No.281/15 issued on 25/09/2015. The "Just2Trade" trademark is owned by J2T SERVICES LTD.
Registration Number: HE 341520
Address: J2T Services Ltd
Magnum Business Center, Office 4B, Spyrou Kyprianou Avenue 78
Limassol 3076, Cyprus
Disclaimer:
All promotions, materials and information of this website may have applied conditions. Please contact the Company for further details
Trading on financial markets carries risks. The value of the investments can both increase and decrease and the investors may lose all their investment capital. In case of a leveraged product, the loss may be more than the initial capital invested. Detailed information on risks associated with trading on financial markets can be found in General Terms and Conditions for the Provision of Investment Services.
E-mail: 24_support@j2t.com
