Global Wheat Price Prediction: Impacts of Economics and Climate
In 2025, agricultural markets remain volatile, driven by ongoing geopolitical tensions and the lasting effects of the pandemic. What should we expect from the wheat market now? This article offers a clear look at wheat prices in the US and beyond. You'll learn what shapes price forecasts, which countries lead in exports and imports, and what price levels are expected this year.
Table of Contents
KEY TAKEAWAYS
WHEAT PRICE PREDICTION SUMMARY
A DETAILED GLANCE AT THE US MARKET
WHAT’S DRIVING WHEAT PRICES IN 2025?
WHEAT PRICE PREDICTIONS FOR 2025
WHEAT PRICE PREDICTIONS FOR 2026
WHEAT PRICE PREDICTIONS FOR 2027
WHEAT PRICE PREDICTIONS FOR 2028
WHEAT PRICE PREDICTIONS FOR 2029
WHEAT PRICE PREDICTIONS FOR 2030
CONCLUSION
FAQ
Key Takeaways
- Wheat prices are expected to show gradual growth from 2025 to 2030.
- Seasonal and geopolitical factors may influence monthly fluctuations.
- By 2030, average wheat prices could exceed $800 per bushel.
Wheat Price Prediction Summary
Wheat prices are projected to steadily rise over the next several years, driven by global demand, climate impacts, and economic trends. According to WalletInvestor forecasts, monthly averages suggest a moderate upward trend, with price ranges widening slightly due to market volatility.
The strongest price gains are anticipated between 2028 and 2030, aligning with broader agricultural inflation and supply chain challenges. This makes wheat a closely watched commodity for traders and analysts alike.
A Detailed Glance at the US Market
We will start with a detailed overview of the American domestic market, where wheat remains one of the most widely consumed commodities and continues to show resilience amid global market challenges.
The US wheat market for the 2025/26 marketing year demonstrates notable strength. Total wheat production is projected at 1,921 million bushels, representing stability from earlier estimates despite being down 3% from the previous year. According to USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), winter wheat production for 2025 is forecast at 1,382 million bushels, up 2% from 2024. The national average yield is expected to reach 53.7 bushels per acre, reflecting a 2-bushel improvement over last year's 51.7 bushels per acre.
| Balance Sheet Item |
2024/25
July |
2025/26
June |
2025/26
July |
Month-to-Month Change |
Comments |
Supply, total
June–May marketing year |
| Beginning stocks | 696 | 841 | 851 | +9 | Updated data from the USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) Grain Stocks report |
| Production | 1,971 | 1,921 | 1,929 | +8 | USDA, NASS provided updated winter wheat estimates and the first survey-based production estimates for Durum and Other Spring wheat |
| Imports | 149 | 120 | 120 | 0 | — |
| Supply, total | 2,817 | 2,882 | 2,899 | +17 | — |
| Demand |
| Food | 975 | 977 | 977 | 0 | — |
| Seed | 62 | 62 | 62 | 0 | — |
| Feed and residual | 103 | 120 | 120 | 0 | — |
| Domestic, total | 1,140 | 1,159 | 1,159 | 0 | — |
| Exports | 826 | 825 | 850 | +25 | Fast pace of export sales and larger production |
| Use, total | 1,966 | 1,984 | 2,009 | +25 | — |
| Ending Stocks and Price |
| Ending stocks | 851 | 898 | 890 | -8 | Ending stocks still up 5% year-to-year |
| Season-average farm price | $5.52 | $5.40 | $5.40 | $0.00 | — |
Winter wheat planted area rose 2% to 34.1 million acres in 2025/26, reversing the long-term decline in favor of corn and soybeans. Harvested area is forecast at 25.7 million acres, with 77% of planted area expected to reach harvest. Ending stocks are projected at 890 million bushels by June 1, 2026, up 5% year-over-year.
Now, let's examine the latest projections for different wheat classes:
- Hard Red Winter (HRW) production for 2025 is forecast at 784 million bushels, up 2% from 2024. After years of drought, HRW exports surged 57% year-over-year to 210 million bushels in 2024/25, driven by competitive pricing and larger supplies.
- Soft Red Winter (SRW) production is projected at 345 million bushels, up 1% from 2024. SRW acted as the global price leader for nearly four months from March to June 2025, with exports reaching 121 million bushels—the second highest in the last decade.
- White wheat production is expected at 253 million bushels, up 7% from 2024. This includes 20.6 million bushels of Hard White and 232 million bushels of Soft White. Good growing conditions resulted in above-average yields, with Soft White exports jumping 18% year-over-year to 174 million bushels.
A major highlight of the 2024/25 marketing year was the strong export performance. U.S. wheat exports reached 820-850 million bushels, representing a 16-20% increase from the previous year's 52-year low. This marks a four-year high and the strongest export performance since the 2020/21 marketing year. The rapid pace of export sales, particularly for Hard Red Winter wheat, has been supported by competitive U.S. pricing relative to other global origins and a weaker U.S. dollar.
Looking ahead to the 2025/26 marketing year, exports are projected at 825-850 million bushels, potentially reaching a five-year high. As of late May 2025, early export sales had already reached 4.9 million metric tons—the highest level in 12 years. Total U.S. commitments accounted for 74% of the full marketing year forecast as of January 2, 2025, with cumulative export sales running 11% higher than the same period last year.
What’s Driving Wheat Prices in 2025?
Wheat prices in 2025 are shaped by global trends, weather shocks, and shifting trade patterns. Let’s break down the most important factors behind this year's wheat price forecast.
Global Supply and Stock Levels
In the wheat market, everything starts with supply. And right now, there is no high demand. Global wheat production has struggled to keep up with growing demand, especially from developing countries. Lower yields in key regions, including the Black Sea, have caused a significant drop in available wheat. This is not just a number game, it’s about food security for millions.
Historical price data shows that when grain prices spike, it’s often tied to a sharp decline in global production. Add to that the rising energy costs and transportation hurdles, and the cost to move agricultural commodities shoots up. The current price of wheat reflects these real struggles, not just speculation.
Wheat exports from top producers are being monitored closely, as they can shift the balance fast. A surge or cut can send commodity prices, including corn prices and soybean prices, in new directions.
For an accurate wheat price forecast, analysts rely on technical analysis, historical price data, and future price movements in futures markets. But remember, this is not fortune-telling, it’s reading the room. And right now, the room is full of uncertainty.
Geopolitical Risks and Trade Disruptions
When politics gets heated, the agricultural market feels the burn. Ongoing conflicts in the Black Sea regions have already disrupted wheat shipments, shaking the nerves of major importers and traders. One blocked port, and suddenly commodity high prices swing like a barn door in the wind.
Wheat prices don’t live in a bubble. They move with the global economy, and in 2025, that economy is anything but stable. Trade disputes, sanctions, and shifting alliances keep everyone guessing. That’s why every solid wheat commodity forecast has to include a reality check on geopolitical tensions.
Countries with unstable trade routes are stocking up, while others wait it out. That back-and-forth causes major price fluctuations. Meanwhile, farmers face uncertainty about selling crops across borders or dealing with new tariffs.
To forecast wheat effectively, one must look beyond spreadsheets. It requires tracking political headlines and understanding how trade friction can flip the market overnight. The more unpredictable the politics, the harder it is to pin down a reliable forecast wheat outlook.
Weather and Climate Uncertainty
Let’s not ignore the wild card, weather conditions. Droughts, floods, and freak storms have hammered agricultural products around the globe. In 2025, erratic weather conditions have already hit major wheat-producing regions, impacting yields and tightening the supply chain.
Wheat price forecast models are starting to weigh in climate risk as a major factor, not a background detail. Long gone are the days when forecast wheat was just about crop calendars. Now, sudden snowfalls or prolonged heat waves can cause commodity prices to surge in days.
Extreme weather not only hurts wheat prices. It affects corn prices, soybean prices, and nearly all agricultural commodities. With shifting global demand, it creates effects throughout the agricultural market.
For traders and farmers (major exporters), this means doubling down on futures contracts and keeping an eye on real-time satellite data. The future price of wheat now depends as much on meteorology as on economics. Smart players use technical analysis and historical price information, but they also keep one eye on the sky.
Wheat Price Predictions for 2025
These projections suggest a predominantly bullish outlook for wheat prices in 2025, with occasional short-term recoveries. Market participants should monitor global supply-demand dynamics and geopolitical factors that could influence price movements.
| Month |
Open ($) per unit |
Close ($) per unit |
| October | $492.62 | $521.78 |
| November | $692.83 | $692.23 |
| December | $693.70 | $704.84 |
Note: These forecasts are based on current market analyses and are subject to change with global economic and environmental factors.
Wheat Price Predictions for 2026
Wheat prices in 2026 are projected to remain stable, influenced by global supply dynamics and geopolitical factors. Consulting with multiple sources will help you make more informed decisions.
| Month |
Open ($) per unit |
Close ($) per unit |
| January | $704.50 | $705.31 |
| February | $707.27 | $734.93 |
| March | $743.27 | $751.82 |
| April | $751.75 | $758.75 |
| May | $758.76 | $768.94 |
| June | $769.03 | $743.02 |
| July | $743.67 | $754.57 |
| August | $756.07 | $758.30 |
| September | $756.51 | $743.71 |
| October | $743.98 | $751.85 |
| November | $752.83 | $753.48 |
| December | $752.20 | $764.86 |
Note: These forecasts are based on current market analyses and are subject to change with global economic and environmental factors.
Wheat Price Predictions for 2027
These forecasts reflect varying methodologies and market analyses, highlighting the importance of considering multiple sources when evaluating future wheat price movements to help you make informed decisions.
| Month |
Open ($) per unit |
Close ($) per unit |
| January | $764.43 | $764.88 |
| February | $766.91 | $791.93 |
| March | $800.24 | $812.63 |
| April | $811.86 | $818.56 |
| May | $820.07 | $829.55 |
| June | $827.70 | $803.64 |
| July | $803.61 | $814.35 |
| August | $815.89 | $816.92 |
| September | $817.22 | $803.59 |
| October | $803.75 | $811.90 |
| November | $812.85 | $811.99 |
| December | $812.77 | $824.77 |
Wheat Price Predictions for 2028
Wheat prices in 2028 are expected to remain relatively stable, influenced by global supply dynamics and geopolitical factors.
| Month |
Open ($) per bushel |
Close ($) per bushel |
| January | $824.89 | $826.52 |
| February | $825.38 | $858.18 |
| March | $861.23 | $871.89 |
| April | $871.34 | $878.35 |
| May | $879.88 | $888.43 |
| June | $887.88 | $863.45 |
| July | $864.94 | $875.70 |
| August | $874.40 | $877.25 |
| September | $876.74 | $863.38 |
| October | $865.47 | $871.40 |
| November | $872.00 | $872.67 |
| December | $872.72 | $885.03 |
Note: These forecasts are based on current market analyses and are subject to change with global economic and environmental factors.
Wheat Price Predictions for 2029
These forecasts are based on current market analyses and are subject to change with global economic and environmental factors.
| Month |
Open ($) per bushel |
Close ($) per bushel |
| January | $885.03 | $885.92 |
| February | $886.17 | $888.57 |
| March | $889.00 | $890.50 |
| April | $891.00 | $892.75 |
| May | $893.00 | $894.25 |
| June | $895.00 | $896.50 |
| July | $897.00 | $898.75 |
| August | $899.00 | $900.50 |
| September | $901.00 | $902.25 |
| October | $903.00 | $904.75 |
| November | $905.00 | $906.50 |
| December | $907.00 | $908.75 |
Wheat Price Predictions for 2030
In 2030, wheat prices are projected to experience moderate fluctuations, influenced by global supply dynamics and market conditions.
| Month |
Average ($) per bushel |
| January | $846.43 |
| February | $832.76 |
| March | $786.56 |
| April | $755.44 |
| May | $789.81 |
| June | $810.20 |
| July | $803.62 |
| August | $827.16 |
| September | $846.80 |
| October | $820.72 |
| November | $781.06 |
| December | $820.40 |
Conclusion
Wheat remains a critical global commodity, with the market recovering from its 2023/24 low. U.S. exports rebounded to 820-850 million bushels in 2024/25, driven by competitive pricing and improved production. However, a fundamental challenge persists: global wheat demand (802.54 million metric tons) exceeds production (794.08 MMT) in 2024-25, with carryover stocks providing only a temporary cushion.
The global wheat market is projected to grow from $235-240 billion in 2025 to $294-381 billion by 2030. Prices are expected to reach $325-498 per metric ton by 2030, with significant volatility driven by climate change, geopolitical tensions, and technological advances. The market's future will be defined by adaptation to an increasingly volatile and interconnected global landscape, requiring vigilance from traders, farmers, and policymakers alike.
FAQ
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What is the wheat outlook for 2025?
In the last months of 2025, wheat reached over $500 per bushel. The wheat outlook for 2025 suggests relatively stable market conditions, with moderate price movements expected due to balanced global supply and demand. Weather patterns and trade dynamics may still influence short-term trends.
-
What is the future projection for wheat?
Wheat prices are expected to follow a moderate upward trend due to growing global consumption, climate-related disruptions, and shifting trade patterns. Long-term projections highlight the importance of supply chain resilience and innovation in agriculture.
