The USD to SEK forecast gives traders a structured view of where the US dollar may move against the Swedish krona through 2030. USD/SEK trades at 9.9018 on October 20, 2026 (Investing.com), down 0.11% on the day, up 4.99% over one year, and up 15.42% over five years.
This guide covers USD/SEK price performance, the drivers behind exchange rate movements, LongForecast projections for 2026 to 2030, Riksbank and Federal Reserve policy, and technical analysis as of October 20, 2026. Just2Trade is a global broker operating since 2016, serving over 155,000 clients across 130 countries, regulated by CySEC under ESMA supervision.
What Affects the USD to SEK Rate?
How to Predict the USD-SEK Exchange Rate
Conclusion: Is SEK a Good Investment?
LongForecast projects year-end USD/SEK closes of 10.036 for 2026, 9.800 for 2027, 9.280 for 2028, 9.280 for 2029, and 8.989 for November 2030. All five closes sit below the current 9.9018, which suggests a gradual krona recovery if the model tracks out. The Riksbank rate path and the Fed's next moves are the key variables that could shift these projections materially in either direction.
| Year | Monthly range | Monthly closes | Year-end close | Change vs current |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 (Oct-Dec) | 9.598-10.197 | 9.744-10.036 | 10.036 | +1.4% |
| 2027 | 9.605-10.517 | 9.751-10.362 | 9.800 | -1.0% |
| 2028 | 8.609-9.938 | 8.740-9.791 | 9.280 | -6.3% |
| 2029 | 8.739-9.812 | 8.872-9.667 | 9.280 | -6.3% |
| 2030 (Jan-Nov) | 8.854-9.701 | 8.989-9.558 | 8.989 | -9.2% |
USD/SEK opened 2026 near 9.21, fell to a year-to-date low of 8.7388 on January 27, and reached 9.7958 on June 24. The pair traded near 9.90 in October, up sharply from the January low. The Federal Reserve raised its target range to 3.75-4.00% on September 16, 2026, widening the rate differential with the Riksbank and supporting the dollar.
Investing.com: USD/SEK price chart, 9.9018 (October 20, 2026)
The Federal Reserve raised its target range by 25 basis points to 3.75-4.00% on September 16, 2026, its first hike in this cycle. The Riksbank held its policy rate at 1.75% on September 24, 2026, raised its projected rate path, and meets next on November 6, 2026. LongForecast projects 10.036 at the December 2026 close, +1.4% from the current rate, with a fourth-quarter range of 9.598-10.197.
| Month | Open | Min | Max | Close | Change % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | 9.2099 | 8.7388 | 9.2715 | 8.9255 | -3.09% |
| February 2026 | 8.9045 | 8.8435 | 9.1080 | 9.0295 | +1.17% |
| March 2026 | 9.0551 | 9.0394 | 9.5867 | 9.4694 | +4.87% |
| April 2026 | 9.4706 | 9.0834 | 9.5641 | 9.2429 | -2.39% |
| May 2026 | 9.2435 | 9.1590 | 9.4816 | 9.2428 | 0.00% |
| June 2026 | 9.2451 | 9.2279 | 9.7958 | 9.7023 | +4.97% |
| July 2026 | 9.6986 | 9.5468 | 9.7709 | 9.6589 | -0.45% |
| Month | Opening price | Min-Max price | Closing price | Change, % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 2026 | 10.008 | 9.645-10.106 | 9.827 | -1.8% |
| November 2026 | 9.827 | 9.598-10.197 | 9.744 | -0.8% |
| December 2026 | 9.744 | 9.744-10.187 | 10.036 | +3.0% |
Sources: Investing.com for January to July 2026 actual data; LongForecast for October to December 2026 projections.
LongForecast projects USD/SEK at 9.827 at the end of October 2026 inside a 9.645-10.106 range, then 9.744 at the end of November inside a 9.598-10.197 range. The November 5 Fed and November 6 Riksbank decisions can shift both figures materially.
LongForecast projects USD/SEK at 9.800 at the December 2027 close, inside a 9.605-10.517 annual range. The 2027 monthly closes run from 9.751 to 10.362. A continued narrowing of the US-Sweden rate differential as the Riksbank lifts rates would support the krona and push the pair toward the lower end of the range.
| Month | Opening price | Min-Max price | Closing price | Change, % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 2027 | 10.036 | 9.946-10.248 | 10.097 | +0.6% |
| February 2027 | 10.097 | 9.766-10.097 | 9.915 | -1.8% |
| March 2027 | 9.915 | 9.915-10.365 | 10.212 | +3.0% |
| April 2027 | 10.212 | 10.045-10.351 | 10.198 | -0.1% |
| May 2027 | 10.198 | 9.804-10.198 | 9.953 | -2.4% |
| June 2027 | 9.953 | 9.953-10.406 | 10.252 | +3.0% |
| July 2027 | 10.252 | 10.207-10.517 | 10.362 | +1.1% |
| August 2027 | 10.362 | 9.900-10.362 | 10.051 | -3.0% |
| September 2027 | 10.051 | 9.655-10.051 | 9.802 | -2.5% |
| October 2027 | 9.802 | 9.605-9.897 | 9.751 | -0.5% |
| November 2027 | 9.751 | 9.677-9.971 | 9.824 | +0.7% |
| December 2027 | 9.824 | 9.653-9.947 | 9.800 | -0.2% |
LongForecast projects a 8.609-9.938 range for USD/SEK in 2028, with a December 2028 close of 9.280. The 2028 monthly closes run from 8.740 to 9.791. The model projects a weakening dollar trend through mid-2028 before a partial recovery in the second half. Treat the 2028 figures as scenario guides, not precise targets.
| Month | Opening price | Min-Max price | Closing price | Change, % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 2028 | 9.800 | 9.363-9.800 | 9.506 | -3.0% |
| February 2028 | 9.506 | 9.506-9.938 | 9.791 | +3.0% |
| March 2028 | 9.791 | 9.514-9.804 | 9.659 | -1.3% |
| April 2028 | 9.659 | 9.432-9.720 | 9.576 | -0.9% |
| May 2028 | 9.576 | 9.150-9.576 | 9.289 | -3.0% |
| June 2028 | 9.289 | 8.875-9.289 | 9.010 | -3.0% |
| July 2028 | 9.010 | 8.609-9.010 | 8.740 | -3.0% |
| August 2028 | 8.740 | 8.635-8.897 | 8.766 | +0.3% |
| September 2028 | 8.766 | 8.766-9.041 | 8.907 | +1.6% |
| October 2028 | 8.907 | 8.907-9.247 | 9.110 | +2.3% |
| November 2028 | 9.110 | 9.110-9.524 | 9.383 | +3.0% |
| December 2028 | 9.383 | 9.141-9.419 | 9.280 | -1.1% |
LongForecast projects a 8.739-9.812 range for 2029, with a December 2029 close of 9.280. The 2029 path extends well beyond typical forecast horizons and should be treated as a directional scenario only. No named institution publishes a month-by-month USD/SEK forecast for 2029.
| Month | Opening price | Min-Max price | Closing price | Change, % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 2029 | 9.280 | 8.867-9.280 | 9.002 | -3.0% |
| February 2029 | 9.002 | 8.948-9.220 | 9.084 | +0.9% |
| March 2029 | 9.084 | 9.009-9.283 | 9.146 | +0.7% |
| April 2029 | 9.146 | 8.739-9.146 | 8.872 | -3.0% |
| May 2029 | 8.872 | 8.872-9.275 | 9.138 | +3.0% |
| June 2029 | 9.138 | 9.138-9.544 | 9.403 | +2.9% |
| July 2029 | 9.403 | 9.244-9.526 | 9.385 | -0.2% |
| August 2029 | 9.385 | 9.385-9.812 | 9.667 | +3.0% |
| September 2029 | 9.667 | 9.236-9.667 | 9.377 | -3.0% |
| October 2029 | 9.377 | 8.960-9.377 | 9.096 | -3.0% |
| November 2029 | 9.096 | 9.096-9.443 | 9.303 | +2.3% |
| December 2029 | 9.303 | 9.141-9.419 | 9.280 | -0.2% |
LongForecast projects a 8.854-9.701 range for 2030 through November, with a November 2030 close of 8.989, -9.2% from the current rate. The model projects a continued slow weakening of the dollar against the krona. The 2030 projection assumes a structural narrowing of the rate differential as US rates eventually ease and the Riksbank maintains a higher stance.
| Month | Opening price | Min-Max price | Closing price | Change, % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 2030 | 9.280 | 9.280-9.701 | 9.558 | +3.0% |
| February 2030 | 9.558 | 9.182-9.558 | 9.322 | -2.5% |
| March 2030 | 9.322 | 9.128-9.406 | 9.267 | -0.6% |
| April 2030 | 9.267 | 9.267-9.688 | 9.545 | +3.0% |
| May 2030 | 9.545 | 9.293-9.577 | 9.435 | -1.2% |
| June 2030 | 9.435 | 9.218-9.498 | 9.358 | -0.8% |
| July 2030 | 9.358 | 9.228-9.510 | 9.369 | +0.1% |
| August 2030 | 9.369 | 9.268-9.550 | 9.409 | +0.4% |
| September 2030 | 9.409 | 9.195-9.475 | 9.335 | -0.8% |
| October 2030 | 9.335 | 8.919-9.335 | 9.055 | -3.0% |
| November 2030 | 9.055 | 8.854-9.124 | 8.989 | -0.7% |
Understanding the USD/SEK historical rate gives context for any dollar to Swedish krona forecast. USD/SEK peaked above 11.22 in January 2025, then fell sharply as the dollar weakened and the Riksbank held rates steady. The pair reached a 2026 year-to-date low of 8.7388 on January 27 before recovering to 9.90 by October.
USD/SEK spent most of 2024 in an upward trend, driven by dollar strength and Riksbank rate cuts, rising from approximately 10.37 in February to a December close of 11.0386.
| Date | Open | High | Low | Close | Change % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| February 2024 | 10.3903 | 10.6330 | 10.2484 | 10.3668 | -0.20% |
| March 2024 | 10.3748 | 10.7425 | 10.1432 | 10.6508 | +2.74% |
| April 2024 | 10.6615 | 11.0319 | 10.4970 | 11.0176 | +3.44% |
| May 2024 | 11.0183 | 11.0500 | 10.4949 | 10.5143 | -4.57% |
| June 2024 | 10.5262 | 10.6631 | 10.2822 | 10.5908 | +0.73% |
| July 2024 | 10.5927 | 10.8699 | 10.4173 | 10.6774 | +0.82% |
| August 2024 | 10.6924 | 10.7456 | 10.1265 | 10.2629 | -3.88% |
| September 2024 | 10.2626 | 10.4140 | 10.0375 | 10.1554 | -1.05% |
| October 2024 | 10.2142 | 10.7052 | 10.2062 | 10.6384 | +4.76% |
| November 2024 | 10.6970 | 11.1217 | 10.6602 | 10.8844 | +2.31% |
| December 2024 | 10.8953 | 11.1425 | 10.8266 | 11.0386 | +1.42% |
2025 marked a decisive turning point. The pair peaked in January at 11.09, then entered a sharp correction phase. March 2025 saw a 6.11% decline as the dollar weakened broadly, and the pair closed the year at 9.2286, down 16.4% from the January 2025 high.
| Date | Open | High | Low | Close | Change % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 2025 | 10.9240 | 11.2230 | 10.9240 | 11.0870 | +2.19% |
| February 2025 | 11.0740 | 11.0740 | 10.5940 | 10.7870 | -2.71% |
| March 2025 | 10.5030 | 10.5030 | 9.9940 | 10.1280 | -6.11% |
| April 2025 | 10.0850 | 10.0850 | 9.5200 | 9.7750 | -3.48% |
| May 2025 | 9.6633 | 9.8558 | 9.4673 | 9.7544 | +0.94% |
| June 2025 | 9.5906 | 9.7453 | 9.3802 | 9.5908 | 0.00% |
| July 2025 | 9.4578 | 9.8040 | 9.4002 | 9.5972 | +1.47% |
| August 2025 | 9.7909 | 9.8357 | 9.4771 | 9.5711 | -0.27% |
| September 2025 | 9.4567 | 9.5500 | 9.2800 | 9.4170 | -1.61% |
| October 2025 | 9.4186 | 9.5000 | 9.2300 | 9.4359 | +0.20% |
| November 2025 | 9.2251 | 9.4700 | 9.1800 | 9.4465 | +0.11% |
| December 2025 | 9.4445 | 9.4445 | 9.1330 | 9.2286 | -2.30% |
USD/SEK opened 2026 near 9.21. The year-to-date low was 8.7388 on January 27, 2026, and the June 24 high was 9.7958. The pair trades at 9.9018 on October 20, 2026, up 7.3% from the December 2025 close of 9.2286.
Sources: Investing.com, XE.com, Macrotrends, Yahoo Finance.
Understanding what drives USD/SEK is essential for building any credible dollar to Swedish krona forecast. The primary factors are central bank policy, economic data, global risk sentiment, and Sweden's trade dynamics.
No single method forecasts USD/SEK reliably, and combining several analytical frameworks gives a more complete picture. The five approaches below cover the main inputs that move the pair.
1. Track the interest rate differential: Monitor the Federal Reserve target range, the Riksbank policy rate, and the market-implied path for each central bank. A widening US-Sweden differential supports USD/SEK; a narrowing one supports the krona.
2. Monitor economic indicators: Track US CPI and PCE, US Non-Farm Payrolls, Swedish CPIF, Swedish GDP, PMI readings, and the Riksbank's quarterly Monetary Policy Report for forward guidance.
3. Use technical analysis for timing: Moving averages, RSI, MACD, and pivot points help identify entry zones and support/resistance levels. The Monthly MA signal reads Strong Buy as of October 20, 2026.
4. Follow institutional forecasts: Bank FX desks and institutions such as the IMF publish USD/SEK outlooks. The direction of revisions over time is as informative as the point estimate.
5. Stress-test your scenarios: Build bull, base, and bear cases for a faster Riksbank hike, renewed Fed tightening, or a global risk-off event. The November 5 Fed and November 6 Riksbank decisions are the next binary events.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Forex trading carries significant risk, and past exchange rate performance is not indicative of future results.
Investing.com's Monthly technical summary for USD/SEK reads Strong Buy on October 20, 2026, with Moving Averages at Strong Buy (11 buy / 1 sell) and Technical Indicators at Buy (5 buy / 1 sell). The Daily reads Neutral and the 5 Hours reads Strong Sell, signaling a short-term pullback inside a bullish longer-term trend.
| Timeframe | Signal (Oct 20, 2026) | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Monthly | Strong Buy (MA: Strong Buy, 11 buy / 1 sell; Indicators: Buy, 5 buy / 1 sell) | Bullish long-term structure |
| Weekly | Strong Buy | Bullish medium-term structure |
| Daily | Neutral | Pause |
| 5 Hours | Strong Sell | Short-term pullback |
| Hourly | Neutral | Pause |
| 30 Min | Neutral | Pause |
The 2026 range defines the main price levels for USD/SEK. Resistance sits near 10.00, the September-October peak, and at 9.7958, the June 24, 2026 high now below the market. Support sits at 8.7388, the 2026 low from January 27.
| Level type | Price | Basis | Change vs 9.9018 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | About 10.00 | September-October 2026 weekly peak (chart-read) | +1.0% |
| Resistance | 9.7958 | June 24, 2026 high, now below the market | -1.1% |
| Support | 8.7388 | 2026 low (January 27) | -11.7% |
Performance across horizons (Investing.com, October 20, 2026):
Important caveat: Technical analysis reflects current price action and momentum. Technical signals do not predict central bank decisions, geopolitical events, or macroeconomic surprises, all of which can override any technical setup in the USD/SEK market.
The interest rate differential between the Federal Reserve and the Riksbank is the primary structural driver of USD/SEK in 2026. The Federal Reserve raised its target range by 25 basis points to 3.75-4.00% on September 16, 2026. The Riksbank held at 1.75% on September 24, 2026 and raised its projected rate path, signalling a slower normalisation than the Fed.
A Fed-Riksbank spread of 2.00-2.25 percentage points favours USD strength against the krona. Every 25-basis-point Fed hike that is not matched by the Riksbank widens the spread and applies upward pressure to USD/SEK. The September 16 Fed hike contributed to the USD/SEK rally from the 2026 low of 8.7388 in January to 9.9018 on October 20.
The Riksbank next meets on November 6, 2026. Riksbank Governor Erik Thedéen cited CPIF inflation at 0.7% in August 2026 (0.5% excluding energy) as evidence that the disinflation process is complete. A hawkish Riksbank signal at the November meeting could narrow the rate differential and apply downward pressure to USD/SEK toward the 9.60-9.70 LongForecast November support zone.
| Central Bank | Current Policy Rate | Last Decision | Next Meeting |
|---|---|---|---|
| Federal Reserve (Fed) | 3.75-4.00% | +25 bps hike, September 16, 2026 | November 7, 2026 |
| Riksbank (Sweden) | 1.75% | Hold, September 24, 2026 | November 6, 2026 |
| Rate differential (Fed minus Riksbank) | 2.00-2.25 pp | Widened after September 16 hike | Narrows if Riksbank hikes in Nov |
The November 2026 meetings of both central banks fall one day apart (Riksbank November 6, Fed November 7). This creates a high-volatility window for USD/SEK where the pair may move 1-2% depending on each bank's statement tone. LongForecast projects a November 2026 close of 9.744, -0.8% from the October close, suggesting the model anticipates the rate differential remaining stable or narrowing slightly.
Sweden's economic structure explains why the krona is sensitive to global risk appetite and commodity prices. Sweden is a major exporter of iron ore, steel, paper products, and manufactured goods. The Swedish economy depends on external demand from Germany, the US, and China, making the krona pro-cyclical: it strengthens when global growth is strong and weakens during slowdowns.
Swedish GDP growth averaged approximately 1.5-2.0% in 2025-2026, supported by a recovery in household consumption as the Riksbank's easing cycle reduced mortgage costs for the majority of Swedish homeowners on variable-rate loans. Swedish household debt to income remains among the highest in Europe, at approximately 180-190%, making the krona sensitive to Riksbank rate decisions that affect domestic consumption and the housing market.
The Swedish current account surplus averaged approximately 4-5% of GDP in 2024-2026, providing structural SEK support. A trade surplus creates net demand for SEK as foreign buyers convert their currencies to pay for Swedish exports. This structural surplus is why the krona is not structurally weak despite periodic episodes of sharp depreciation during global risk-off periods.
Sweden has a stable, export-oriented economy with a credible central bank, and the krona stays a cyclical currency that strengthens when global growth is robust and risk appetite is high. USD/SEK trades at 9.9018 on October 20, 2026, up 7.3% from the December 2025 close of 9.2286 and up 4.99% over one year. The Monthly technical signal reads Strong Buy, while the Daily reads Neutral and the 5 Hours reads Strong Sell.
LongForecast projects 10.036 for December 2026, 9.800 for December 2027, and 8.989 for November 2030. The Riksbank decision on November 6 and the Fed decision on November 5 are the nearest binary catalysts. A hawkish Riksbank surprise would support the krona; a further Fed hike or a global risk-off event would support the dollar.
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Data last updated: October 20, 2026.
All forecasts in this article are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial advice.
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